Demographic Collapse: Sweden

Why it's more over than you could have imagined

Apr 07, 2024

“Demographics is destiny” once said your favorite racist podcaster, nearly quoting the ideological founding father of Turkey, Auguste Comte. Peter Zion knows it, that’s why he predicts China will collapse in two weeks while America is just beginning its 1000 year reich, America breeds. Well, America is about half a baby per woman short of reaching replacement level, but it’s not Korea, or the state department deboonkings of Chinese data showing they are probably just as bad. Of course you’re laughing because you’re smart, you know American fertility rates are inflated. People think America has a fertility advantage but it’s only because the numbers are being propped up by a nonproductive underclass, who reproduce themselves but don’t contribute to the economy, and America will be first to fall to dysgenic collapse!

The American government, due to its historical roots in systematic racism, provides us with quarterly data on the birth rates of all three races of America, and even which ones pay for their delivery plus mandatory circumcision with Medicaid (64.6% for Blacks in Q2 2023). With a minor adjustment for age, we find that while Hispanics are getting the fuck rate up and pushing past that 1.90 hoping for the sweet, sweet taste of replacement level fertility, and blacks are holding ground with the help of immigration (did you know 20% of American blacks are foreign born?) to forever remain 13% , white gyatts are dropping the ball at an embarrassing tfr hovering in the 1.55~1.60 range through 2021-2023! LOL it’s over for amerimutts, just a few more decades and white genocide is a success! So what happened, I thought religious bigotry and wholesome eggball culture were supposed to protect the native people of the North American continent from succumbing to the same fate as the pornsick losers of the Orient? Everyone says Europe has no future, but if you look at the science it says whites in America have European level fertility rates, so it’s really over!

Sure, everyone knows Italy has always had a particularly embarrassing fertility rate due to their high fashion culture putting women under too much pressure (leading theory), and Spain has a similar metrosexual vibe, and Ukraine was hovering at a little over 1.1 before the war, but they’re not even an EU nation, the EU says their fertility rate is 1.46. Poland’s based tradcath era would have boosted $tfr to the moon but they got thwarted by libtards, who ruined it by talking about legalizing abortion. But those are just the outliers, real Europe is about on par with US whites. So which nations are doing alright? Well, France MOGS America. They scored a sweet 1.88 tfr in 2018, woo baby. But there’s a problem, that same year 40.3% of newborns in France were screened for sickle cell. They stopped publicizing this information so we don’t know when it became half, maybe 2021 when 1/5 of newborns were given Muslim names?

You thought it was because they all started reading Caplan?

We have to use this type of data because Europe by and large does not publish any data by ethnicity, in some cases making collection of such data illegal. So while we generally know a lot about demographic trends in places like America, Russia, and Israel do we have any idea how many people in Germany are German? Furthermore, what the fertility rate of Germans in Germany is? One European nation lauded for keeping birth rates high is Sweden, often ascribed to the success of the Nordic model’s generous social programs and gender equality. Luckily, the SCB, Sweden’s government agency for statistics offers us ample information to scrutinize this, even if it’s not as straightforward as we’d like.

All data is from 2023 unless otherwise noted. With a total population of 10,551,707; the background of persons is reported as:

Foreign born  2,170,627
Born in Sweden with two foreign born parents  696,049
Born in Sweden with one parent born in Sweden and one foreign born parent  825,646
Born in Sweden with two parents born in Sweden  6,859,385

The first point of confusion regarding this I believe comes from the explanation that1:

Persons who have foreign backgrounds are defined as persons who are foreign born, or born in Sweden with foreign born parents. Persons with Swedish background are defined as persons who are born in Sweden with two parents born in Sweden or born in Sweden with one parent born in Sweden and one foreign born parent.
Personer med utländsk bakgrund definieras som personer som är utrikes födda, eller inrikes födda med två utrikes födda föräldrar. Personer med svensk bakgrund definieras som personer som är födda i Sverige med två inrikes födda föräldrar eller en inrikes född och en utrikes född förälder.

This indicates that for bureaucratic purposes, “Swedish background“ includes not only all persons born to two parents born in Sweden but also persons born to one foreigner. This is one of the most basic obfuscations of the data which has led to underestimation of the foreign population. When we sum the totals for foreign births (FP) and each classification of persons born to foreigners (1FP, 2FP) we get:

2,170,627 + 696,049 + 825,646 = 3,692,322

and as a portion of the population

3,692,322 / 10,551,707 = 0.350

This puts the subset of the population not born in a foreign country or born to a foreign born parent at 65%, which we may call 2BP. Additionally, we may see the regions of birth for all persons:2

Born in Sweden  8,381,080
Born in the Nordic countries or the EU except Sweden  600,006
Born in Africa  253,259
Born in Asia  855,568
Born in Europe except the Nordic countries and the EU as well as South America, North America and Oceania  461,794

Persons born in Sweden (SB) make up 79.4% of the total population, and of the foreign born population, we have EU nations at 27.6%, Africa at 11.67%, Asia at 39.41%, and Other at 21.27%. Due to prevalent documented fraud by asylum seekers and the demographic state of other European nations I would not draw straightforward data about ethnicity from these figures. Now, one thing I wanted to determine was how many 2BP are of foreign origin but not listed as such, what we may call third generation immigrants. To get a rough estimate of this, possibly for the first time by anyone, I summed the number of living males born in a foreign country who are at least 50 years old and have been in Sweden for at least 25 years.3 I could not find data on deaths of FP men so keep that in mind.

The total in this subgroup was 461,802. So to estimate the number of grandchildren from this population counted as 2BP arriving at various times from before 1999 I used a shifting tfr of 2 and 1.5 for their number of offspring and offsprings’ offspring, then found this group’s proportion among 2BP. We get:

461,802 * 3 = 1,385,406
1,385,406 / 6,859,385 = 0.2020

This would indicate that 20% of people “born to two Swedish parents“ in official data are also foreign descended and thus not ethnic Swedes. This seemed high until I looked at the data on the countries of birth for these men and found a little over 1/5 were from Finland (103,929), and remembered that 5~7% of Sweden’s entire population is ethnic Finns. My estimate actually underpredicts their percentage of foreign descended 2BPs but I would guess a much higher proportion of first generation Finnish immigrants came earlier and have perished, or else the third gen immigrant number would be much higher. For your interest, here are the other most common places of origin for these progenitors:

Yugoslavia  35,880
Iran  27,220
Bosnia  24,811
Poland  21,384
Turkey  18,311
Iraq  18,232
Denmark  15,581
Norway  15,522
Germany  15,288
Chile  13,393
Lebanon  10,142
Syria  8,116
Hungary  6,403
Romania  5,545
Vietnam  5,486
Thailand  4,203
Czechoslovakia  3523
Somalia  3,071

Estimates for descendants appear to reasonably line up for Wikipedia (lol) figures of these ethnic groups in Sweden.45678 For total foreign or foreign descended vs ethnically Swedish proportions we get

3,692,322 + 1,285,406 = 0.4812
1 - 0.4812 = 0.5188

We’ve arrived at an estimate that Sweden in 2024 is about 51% ethnically Swedes. This is shocking and hard to believe but I will add that my conservative estimate of third gen immigrants based on only 1.5 grandchildren each would have given a figure of 58%, equal to the 65% 2BP minus the high end estimates of Sweden Finns alone.

If your personal experience on the ground does not correspond with this conclusion, I will assure you that the vast majority of white Americans have never had the phenomenological experience of living in a <60% white country, but the data is clear on that point. Let’s turn to births by ethnicity, which we can find from the number of 1 year olds in the succeeding year.9 Assuming the fertility rate of third gen immigrants is equal to ethnic Swedes, I predicted the first year ethnic Swedes became a minority of new births was 2017, with it being 50/50 in 2016 and slightly bumping up again to 50/50 in 2019.

2015 serves as a nice symbolic delineation for the last time ethnic Swedes were a majority of births. With the European migrant crisis, many people woke up to the fact that things could get out of hand soon if immigration wasn’t limited. Since that point asylum seekers have declined but the issue’s severity has not. While asylum applications have reduced, Sweden now has the classic American issue of chain migration, where residents by asylum allow their family members to come in, who allow theirs, and so on.

However, the bigger issue is naturalization, which makes remigration nearly impossible under current universal legal norms. Here the problem has never been alleviated, with 2022 setting a record at 92,225 new citizens.10 Every year the state continues to add nearly 1% of the current population as permanent citizens.

So the question of fertility. While overall total fertility was once at a relatively high level, it has declined from 1.85 in 2015 to 1.52 in 2022.11

The projected total fertility for 2023 from SCB gives a total fertility of 1.49, though BirthGauge has given an updated total projection of 1.45.12 The SCB gives data by mother’s birth nation13, which adjusting to the corrected total fertility of 1.45 gives us:

Born in:
Sweden  1.398
EU  1.169
Africa  2.315
Asia  1.631
Other  1.542

From our previous data we can find that SB is roughly made up of these proportions:

1FP + 2FP - 18%
Third gen - 16.5%
Ethnic Swede - 65.5%

If we suppose tfr of 1.5, 1.6, or 1.8 for the non-Swedish SB we get figures of:

1.344
1.292
1.186

I tend to find the 1.292 figure believable, putting it in line with Finland at 1.26. Religiosity and age of first marriage are two of the best predictors of fertility, with Sweden and Finland very much being peers in this regard with average ages of marriage for women surpassing 34 in both, and church attendance at rock bottom.

So in conclusion we’ve found that rather than being in line with American whites, the native people of Sweden have a fertility rate below the long running laughing stock of Japan and have already been reduced to half the population of their own nation. I believe this to be a similar case to many of the nations in Europe, but nobody has any idea because of the lack of available data.

A very low and declining birth rate is an existential threat in and of itself. If I were to continue in a series on this topic I would look at the state Japan finds itself in and explore what could realistically be done to fix the solution, but due to various circumstances any effective measures are increasingly unlikely for political reasons. The most likely scenario I see is that Japan is never again able to be a great power and its influence and cultural presence on the world stage will recede to a pitiful state. That said, the problem becomes much more severe when this is coupled with the presence of a large and potentially hostile foreign populace within your borders growing rapidly. As the issue becomes harder to deal with each succeeding year, I do not see Sweden being able to stomach the type of response that will be necessary, especially with a populace ignorant of the severity of the current state, so the most likely scenario to me is that Sweden will not exist as a nation state 30 years from now.

It would be prudent to think of the 2015 migrant crisis not as the major catastrophe of our time but as just the first and least of many possible events of a similar type in the 21st century. Everyone acknowledges that beyond the proximate cause of the Syrian civil war, the crisis was as much influenced by a myriad of contributory factors. I will not go in depth for now but the decades of conditioning regarding the climate crisis and the eschatological prophecy of the Most Important Graph set the stage for a crisis of unfathomable proportion and of greater consequence to Europe than any historic military conflict.

There are two white pills I can offer from the data presented. First is that by some estimates, the number of Swedish diaspora may soon match the number of ethnic Swedes within Sweden itself. This means the fate of the Swedes is not tied to the fate of Sweden, and since the Swedish identity is lindy, breeder effects ensure they will one day recover. The second is that if ethnic Swedes within their own homeland only number at ~5.5 million it makes their international contributions in industry and the arts all the more impressive. Just this century Swedes have produced the most successful video game of all time, the most successful music producer of all time, the first Internet megacelebrity, the first successful torrent sharing site, the dominant music streaming platform, and Zyn. Swedish ingenuity and creativity may result of the same underlying factors leading to their demise, but it indicates they will be at the forefront of whatever developments lead to hope of a way out.

Willard’s Substack

Discussion about this post